Ark Urbis Australian Macroeconomic & Property Outlook Winter Edition 2025

The report examines macroeconomic forces shaping Australian real estate, before focusing on the geographies and sectors where Ark is most active. This year, we introduce the Property Clock, an analytical tool for assessing where each market sits in the investment cycle. Rather than focusing solely on current conditions, we ask: are they improving or declining?

Real estate remains complex. Opportunity and risk coexist across sectors and regions, often for very different reasons.

At the time of writing, the Federal Labor Government has secured a second term with a larger majority, reinforcing budget commitments, particularly those supporting housing and construction sector jobs.

On the macro front, strong population growth, potential interest rate relief, and stabilising construction costs are positive. However, global uncertainty looms as the Trump Administration’s trade war with China, Australia’s key trading partner, continues.

Demand continues to outpace supply in residential markets, while Industrial, though still attractively valued, has entered a downward phase. All states remain broadly investable, with Victoria showing early signs of recovery across most sectors.

On behalf of the editorial and research teams, we invite you to explore the report and welcome any discussion it inspires. We also extend our thanks to everyone who contributed their time, expertise and insights to bring this report to life.