WA passed three million people in December 2024 and is growing at 2.2% a year—the fastest of any state, and one of only two (alongside Queensland) recording positive net interstate migration. Bankwest Curtin’s population forecasts have WA reaching 3.5 million within the decade and four million by 2043. 

Historically, migration to WA has tracked the iron ore price. Now, however, AUKUS and Westport are adding a second, largely commodity-independent demand driver. For this reason, market commentary points to price pressure extending through to the end of the decade, not just the next 18 months. 

I believe a 2030 horizon is realistic before supply has a meaningful opportunity to catch the population curve. This assumes the UDIA’s growth corridor infrastructure request ($596 million to unlock land for 115,000 homes across seven corridors) is funded on schedule. 

At the same time, it is becoming harder for developers to bring land to market efficiently. Increasingly, developers are needing to assemble multiple 2–6-hectare parcels across different landowners to create projects of meaningful scale, meaning committed development capacity is not keeping pace with demand. 

Resources are still firing in WA. The mining and petroleum sector recorded $226 billion in sales in 2025, investment is at a decade high ($34 billion), and gold revenue reached a record on the back of prices approaching US$4,000/oz.

The key difference now is the composition of this revenue. It is coming from mines already in production, not mines under construction. That’s a materially different risk profile to the last boom, when market swings were driven by construction workforces moving into WA and departing again in three-year waves.

Layered on top of this is a defence-driven industrial base that has little to do with commodity prices. The Henderson Defence Precinct represents a $25 billion investment over the next decade, supporting around 10,000 direct jobs over 20 years, regardless of where iron ore prices sit.

Diversification matters. Defence, logistics, advanced manufacturing, healthcare and renewable energy are all contributing to a broader and more resilient economy. These industries don’t replace resources; they complement them.

The fiscal numbers support this view. WA delivered its eighth consecutive operating surplus in 2025–26 ($3.5 billion), with a ninth forecast for 2026–27 ($2.4 billion). It also remains the only Australian state holding dual AAA credit ratings. The WA Government has maintained strong balance sheet discipline during a period when many governments have significantly increased spending.

Private credit has become an increasingly important source of capital as developers seek flexibility, faster decision-making and lending partners who understand the realities of delivering projects.

But capital alone isn’t enough. The best lending outcomes come from understanding the people behind a project, the local market they operate in, and the challenges they face throughout the development lifecycle.

Being on the ground means spending time with borrowers, visiting projects, understanding local market dynamics and building relationships that extend well beyond a single transaction. Those insights improve our ability to assess risk, support quality borrowers and deploy capital where we see genuine long-term value.

The opportunity for our clients lies in supporting experienced developers delivering construction facilities, land subdivisions and industrial developments in the corridors where demand remains strongest and supply constraints are most evident. That’s planning delays, titling issues or infrastructure bottlenecks.

That’s where Ark Capital excels. By combining disciplined capital with local relationships and deep market knowledge, we’re able to support borrowers who recognise that WA’s current supply gap is not simply a short-term cycle, but a long-term structural opportunity.

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