Crippling public debt created by a government driven primarily by ideology and politics, with no clear way to get out of the mire. A state that is rife with corruption, particularly in the construction sector where organised crime has infiltrated the CFMEU and government seems powerless—or worse, unwilling—to do anything about it. This has literally cost Victorians tens of billions of dollars due to delays, mismanagement and blatant corruption.

Melbourne housing is still relatively affordable, but this doesn’t encourage me—it worries me! We’re now more affordable on hard numbers than Brisbane and Adelaide, not because growth has been carefully managed, but because the housing sector has been crippled by excessive taxes and evaporated confidence. When you’re cheaper because you’re less desirable, that’s not a win—it’s a warning.

For Ark, the review aligns with where we’ve always positioned ourselves: disciplined, conservative, and built around investor-first principles.

But it also reinforces that now is the time to continue lifting our standards — not because we are required to, but because we have the opportunity to

Working in institutional real estate capital, I regularly hear a phrase that chills me: ‘ABM’—Anywhere But Melbourne. This is foreign and local capital alike. The reason? Investors are pricing in sovereign risk to their investments in Melbourne. Sovereign risk! This used to be something we would apply to third world and developing countries where governments can be unstable. I never thought that Victoria would be thought of the same way. 

At Ark Capital, we invest nationally and see what is happening in other states and geographies. It is both refreshing and depressing as a Melburnian.  

It’s remarkable how South Australia and Queensland are responding to governments and premiers who are inspiring confidence in their states and people—governments that are supporting growth in the interests of all their constituents. New South Wales is similar, with a premier inspiring confidence rather than concern. 

Working in capital markets, the phrase ‘follow the money’ is always instructive. Where’s the money going at the moment? Into Brisbane, Adelaide, and out of Melbourne. 

In our business, we still invest in Melbourne where we see opportunity, but the numbers don’t lie. Three years ago, over 45% of our book was invested in Victoria; now it’s less than 30%. Follow the money. 

But here’s what keeps me awake at night: my three children are finishing school and university and entering the workforce. Does bad government, excessive debt, lack of leadership and corruption just become the norm for them? I’m not sure whether they have seen—or will get to see—the alternative. 

This is what troubles me most. Not just the state of things now, but that an entire generation of young Victorians might accept this as normal. That they might think this level of government dysfunction, this burden of public debt (remember that staggering $40 billion annual State Government wage bill?), this tolerance for corruption in our building industry—that all of this is just how things are. 

They deserve better. They deserve to know what Melbourne was capable of being. They deserve a government that inspires confidence instead of caution, that makes decisions for the long-term prosperity of Victorians rather than for short-term electoral survival. 

This is where my exasperation as a Melburnian truly kicks in. There’s no ‘Jeff Kennett’ type solution where public assets can be sold to repay debt—those opportunities were exhausted a generation ago. The path forward is less clear but no less urgent.

What we need is good government and leadership. Not government driven by ideology, soundbites and short-term decisions designed to ensure re-election, but leadership that makes sound decisions and investments in the long-term interests of Victorians. A government prepared to tackle corruption in the building industry head-on. A government that understands you need to inspire confidence for capital to want to invest.

Confidence comes from stability, from policies and investment that support and encourage the private sector. Confidence comes from leadership that can grow the economy, not just tax its way out of every issue.

Melbourne has the fundamentals to be great again. We have talented people, strong institutions, and a history of innovation and ambition. What we lack is the political will to make the hard decisions required to restore confidence and rebuild our competitive position.

As someone who has spent decades in real estate capital markets, I can tell you that cities and states rise and fall based on the quality of their leadership and the confidence they inspire. Right now, Melbourne is falling. The capital is flowing elsewhere. The opportunities are being taken up by our competitors.

The question is: will we accept this as inevitable, or will we demand better?

For my children’s sake—for all young Victorians’ sake—I hope we choose the latter. They deserve to inherit a Melbourne that is rising, not declining.

A Melbourne that attracts capital and opportunity, not repels it. A Melbourne that remembers what made it great and has the courage to reclaim that greatness.

Oh Melbourne, where art thou? You’re still here, somewhere beneath the debt and dysfunction. But you’re running out of time to rediscover yourself.

If you’re an investor, borrower or strategic partner who values forward-thinking leadership, now is the right time to connect.

Let’s talk about where you want to go and how we can help you get there.